JUJU v ANALYSIS: ZMOT Part 3

A World Cup Example featuring Ghana vs USA

You might be wondering, what could possibly be the correlation between the Zero Moment Of Truth, analysis and black magic (i.e. Juju)?

Actually there's none. I just wanted to get the attention of a certain kind of audience.
But since you are here, please do stay with me for a minute or two ok?

So, If you have NEVER met or heard of anyone who uses black-magic (or juju), then you've probably spent most of your life living outside of Africa. I mean seriously, practically everyone I know either knows someone who has used juju before, or they have some story of some neighbor or the other.

So my question here is,"why do people use it?" or, "why do they trust enough to try it?"....Do they ever actually think that last part through?

This article should challenge you to think of ZMOT strategy as a marketing strategy that is built on analytical data. Not on hearsay or on old-wives fables.

If you have read my previous articles then you probably already know what the (ZMOT) Zero Moment Of Truth is. But if you haven’t, you may find some definitions here and here.

But before we proceed, I must quickly point out that the question of whether or not I believe in juju is irrelevant to this article.
So please don't ask me if I do. Okay? Depending on who you are, you will not like my response. :)

What is important is that many people in my country and other parts of Africa (West, East, Central, South, and probably North as well) believe in it.

They believe it exists, they believe it works, and some of them would actually pay good money for it to be used for their benefit.
That is the issue!

Some claim it works to protect themselves from harm or against supernatural attacks from their enemies. Others believe it could be to get someone to fall in love with them (funny, right?). And of-course, sometimes some folks use it to get promotion at the office. And funny enough, sometimes even to try to win elections. Imagine that!

So what has all of this got to do with Google’s principle of the Zero Moment Of Truth?

Well....Nothing, directly.

But a critical view of this behavior could help you with building the kind of mindset that is required for successful marketing in this new digital age.

Let's look at a funny example:

USA vs GHANA World Cup 2014  

So here's a funny but true example of what I am saying:

Last night, I was watching the USA vs Ghana (2014) world cup game with my neighbor, Patrick.

We were both commenting on how well the Ghanaians were playing, and recognizing how much better they were than our own Nigerian team earlier. This was despite the fact that the USA were leading by 1-0.

Now, at some point the game, the camera suddenly showed a Ghanaian fan that was unmistakably dressed like a "baba-alawo" (or witch doctor - or juju man).
And I must confess he looked a little scary as the close-up shot captured him in slow-motion as he whipped his hair around like Willow Smith.
Hahaha. Apologies to that sweet little girl. 

He actually looked a bit scary while he was animated, and in slow motion. Hahaha!

Anyway, within the next minute, Ghana got a goal to level the scores. And it was a beautifully worked goal indeed.
So Patrick immediately remarked, "what if it was their juju man that did it?". 

Really!? :(

And while Patrick wasn't such a superstitious person, I guess his comment was because he made some kind of correlation in the fact that the goal had been eluding the Ghanaians all along, until that sudden recognition of the witch-doctor. 

And me, being a man that sincerely supports "fair-play" when it comes to logic and reasoning, I was willing to indulge him for a minute. 
And so I asked, 
"Did he travel to Brazil to use his spiritual juju powers to get a draw for his country, or a win?"


"Anyway, if they were to show him again before the match ends, and within a minute of that showing, Ghana were to get another goal to win the match, then maybe I will take what you said seriously, and I would probably start to do some serious research into juju in football". 
I mean, that's fair enough isn't it?

ANALYZE EVERYTHING

Newsflash: USA eventually scored another goal just before the end of that match, and that ultimately knocked out both Ghana and their juju man out of the World Cup.

But it is important to note that I don't just feel this way about witch-doctors alone:
I think true lovers of football should also not shy away from challenging the "expert analyses" of the many soccer pundits on tv or cable. Because let's face it, these days it is so easy to get on tv and start talking "football analysis" without actually using any real analysis to arrive at your postulations. Neither do the pundits demonstrate true knowledge of consistent patterns in their readings of the game.
(meanwhile, see how I combine Web Analysis with my Football game reading skills)

So in my marketing business, I tell my clients it is important to think about traditional television and magazine advertising this way as well. I tell them to challenge the claims and not just go ahead to buy a billboard advert simply because that's what others do when they've made a certain amount of money.

In fact, it is my nature to challenge everything.

Zoom in on the image below, you'll find some interesting results from a survey that was conducted in the Automotive industry where respondents were asked what had the most impact on their purchase decisions. Traditional stimulus influences are on the left in blue. ZMOT behavior is in red. But also recognize that two options with the green arrows represent stimulus that are digital (online) based, even though they are not ZMOT-inspired consumer behavior. 
(by the way, Stimulus & traditional advertising refers to the kind of promotions that prevailed before the digital age)

I have a theory:

You should not continue to pay for something, where the only way that you can know for sure it works is because its vendor told you so. Juju men say their powers work, and people pay for them. Traditional advertising works to a degree, but how do we really know that degree in this day and age, where you have so many more inventions jostling for our attention.

I am not saying that traditional advertising does not work anymore, or that it is like juju. No, that's not what I am saying entirely. Yet you must agree that television, magazines, radio and even billboards don't have anything close to the kind of influence that they once used to have over our lives.

This is why analysis is so important to me.
And analysis must always take context into consideration. I bet even my friends in my Community, True Football Analysts, are tired of hearing me say this.

So ultimately,

ZMOT mindedness or strategy is NOT about using juju-tactics or blind-trust to gain success for your business, whatever it is. It is about being armed with all the right capabilities for success in this ever present digital age. It is about gathering information and previously unattainable clues into how to touch your customer.

The accurate gathering and interpretation of analytic data along with the use of customer retention management systems relieves a ZMOT minded marketer of the anxieties that usually come when you rely on the whims of the gods.

And unlike in traditional advertising, where John Wanamaker (1838 -1922) said he didn’t know what half of his advertising spend was being wasted, today, thanks to digital marketing tools and human resources, you can be sure that you can find out and plug up such a wastage quite easily.

ANALYSIS IN SEO, PPC, DISPLAY, SMM, YOUTUBE, & ALL DIGITAL STRATEGY

Analysis goes a long way in ensuring the proper use of digital marketing techniques like Search Engine Optimization (or SEO), Online Advertising (Display and Search Advertising), Youtube & other Video Marketing platforms, Social Media Marketing, etc.

Analysis also improves your tactics and strategy along the way. The need to be able to do this right cannot be overemphasized in this volatile digital age we are in.

It is about realizing that your potential customers and clients are changing fast. They are now constantly asking questions online, about your brand, your offerings, your techniques and even your competition. 

The scariest part is that they are already getting some answers to their questions. The problem is, from whom?

People are more likely to search for answers before making a decision to buy.

In conclusion:

ZMOT strategy will not give you magical powers to sell your products online. Just like Juju did not give Ghana victory against the USA (despite how well they played on the night) But your ability to think in this new paradigm - gathering and analyzing data - will give you a clear edge with your online transactions and deals. Whether they be goods on your e-commerce site, an offline professional service that you’ve advertised online, or even a cause that you wish to advance within your society.

Thanks for reading......

Please leave a comment, or ask me any question you like.

You can also ask me questions related to the Zero Moment Of Truth and/or digital marketing on the Digital Africa Community on Google+ 

The Similarities Between Football Analysis And Web Analytics

What Does Football Analysis Have In Common With Web Analytics?

Plenty!

Give me a chance to entertain you a bit, and inform you a bit, and teach you a bit about how soccer games can be analyzed almost as accurately as we analyze the performance of websites using Google Analytics, or other digital analytics tools.

In a previous article I spoke about attribution in Google Analytics using some famous Spanish soccer teams as examples. 
I am sure that article was a bit difficult to understand, so I will try harder to make this one a bit easier for those who know little to nothing about web analysis.

I want to draw your attention to the recent European Champions League match between FC Bayern Munich and Real Madrid that took place on April 29, 2014.

It was a very close match but it ended 4 - 0 in favor of Real Madrid.

What was that again?!

If it ended 4-0 for Real Madrid, then why would I say that it was a very close match?

Well, I said so because I am an analyst not a mere football fan.

I do not base my understanding of the game on just the outcome of a few matches, but I try hard to understand every separate event that takes place within the 90 minutes of the match as they occur, and discover patterns and meanings that repeat themselves across a wide number of football matches in general.

This behavior in digital web analytics is like focusing on micro-conversions instead of focusing on macro-conversions.

Okay, here’s a quick description:

Macro-Conversion – 
This is something that occurs on a website that is very important to your business, like a transaction (e.g. someone purchased a pair of shoes on your website); or it could be an additional subscription to your blog, if you are a blogger. It may also be that a visitor to your site, found and used your phone number to make inquiry about your services. 

Therefore, in soccer, we can say that a macro-conversion occurs when a goal is scored. That should be simple enough. 

Micro-Conversions – 
Now these are measurable steps that a visitor takes on your website on the way to a macro-conversion.  
It is important to measure micro-conversions because it will give you a clearer picture on how to optimize your website as well as your marketing campaigns in such a way that they help your visitors along their journey to macro-conversions more easily.

Examples of web micro-conversions could be when a user visits your website and sees some shoes you are selling, and then clicks to see a larger image of the shoes. Or when the visitor also clicks on the Special Price Offer button for the same pair of shoes. 

Such actions give you insight into the fact that that customer is at the very least mildly interested in those shoes, even when they did not end up purchasing it.

So, micro-conversions in football would be the things that happen during the build up to a goal.

1. a defensive interception from Sergio Ramos, who gives a quick and accurate pass to Angel DiMaria,

2. an even quicker one-two by DiMaria with Karim Benzema through the left flank,

3. Next a spectacular left-footed cross from DiMaria down the left flank.

4. Headed down by Gareth Bale for....

Cristiano Ronaldo to blast the ball into the net for a goal. Which would be the Macro-conversion in this case.

I hope that was easy to understand?
(For a much deeper comparison of Analytics and Football Analysis, see my other article here ◄)

Cristiano Ronaldo' enjoyed a lot of fantastic assisted balls from Angel DiMaria during the LaDecima season , after Carlo Ancelotti's reprisal of the Argentinian's role in the team.

Now back to the matter at hand:

Why I say the game between Bayern & Real Madrid was a very close one.

It is simple, most soccer pundits today, begin to analyze football from the Final score, and then go back to explain the game with that bias.

I do the opposite. 

I rate a team’s performance by the events of 90 minutes, often times irrespective of the number of goals scored. 
In fact, I often try to assume what would have happened if no goals had been scored... how I would describe the game then.

In fact, most of the members of my community True Football Analysts have gotten used to (or tired of) me arguing about this issue over and over again by now.

I have come to accept that, there was, there is, and there always will be a significant amount of luck that affects how goals are scored in soccer.
And one goal that goes in by luck can easily change how the rest of the match plays out. 

For example, how many times does Sergio Ramos score two headed goals in a month? Not to talk of in one match? 
Yet, by the time Bayern Munich tried hard to reply those two goals, all that happened was they suffered a painful counter-attack goal from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Does this suddenly mean that Bayern have suddenly become a poor team?

Certainly not! 

Or does it really mean that Real Madrid play so much better than they did against Bayern at home (in Spain) where they won by just 1 - 0 ?

Of course not!

The stats of both legs of the tie (from UEFA.com) are almost completely identical.

In game 1 Real Madrid had 7 shots on target and only 36% ball possession. While they had the exact same numbers in game two as well....Only this time, 4 of those 7 attempts ended up becoming macro-conversions in instead of 1.

But what I find to be so amazing is the fact that Real Madrid’s chances created in the first leg looked much more dangerous (to me) than at least 3 of the ones that went in in game 2 (you may need to refer to highlights of both matches to understand what I mean here).

Now, I believe that Real Madrid deserved to win both games, no doubt. Ignore the fact that I am a Madridista (since 1990). 
Yet, doing proper analysis helps me to develop a system of understanding patterns that may happen repeatably, and hence, make football matches reasonably more predictable to me. Doing proper analysis is also tons of fun for me. :-)

Analysis Is For Predictability

But, anyway, at a certain level, football can be indeed very predictable:

Imagine, if you lined up a star-studded squad like Real, Bayern Munich, or Barcelona against a Canadian secondary school soccer team? You can bet there is going to be a 15-0 thrashing in that one.....

But things start getting less predictable as we gradually reduce the disparity between each sets of players.  We look at second division sides with professional footballers: they would also most likely be thrashed by Madrid, but not as badly as the Canadian high school squad. 

Then you come to the lower class LaLiga sides like Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano. 
We always expect Real Madrid to thrash such teams as well, but it doesn’t always happen like that. Occasionally, the Osasunas actually get to beat Madrid.

And when we come to opponents like Barcelona or Bayern, that's when we see the predictability really blurring out.

This is the stage when you need to pay greater attention to the finer details of a match, in order to know why a team may have lost or won. 
If you want to keep winning the big games, you would need to learn how to properly analyze.

Your accurate analysis is what helps you optimize on these fine details and improve your team.
I honestly doubt that many professional coaches today do that so well. :-)

It Is Really About Increasing The Chances

But anyway, in web analytics, we optimize our site based on what we have learned from the customer journey and behavior. 

We examine their clicks and behavioral trends on our websites, and this gives us context on what they may have been trying to do or why they are not doing it. (Notice I use that word may, quite frequently)

By properly analyzing the micro-conversions in the analytics reports, we are able to increase our chances of knowing what is actually going on with the visitors on our sites. And this can lead to us taking concrete steps towards helping customers to actually purchase something. Or score a goal. :-)

Just like a good coach will do in football match to ensure that he increases the chances of his team scoring goals and preventing others from scoring against them. 

It requires proper analysis.
And for that, you need a healthy dose of skepticism in your system. And if you can get that by drinking something, then I suggest you do so before becoming an analyst.

Proper analysis for me is about understanding of the proper context of each scenario. You should not just assume that because you recently increased your Facebook advertising, it therefore means that Facebook is responsible for the soaring page views and micro-conversions on your site.

You must painstakingly try to know what other stuff could have possibly affected your site's popularity.

Practice Makes Perfect

So here are some examples of the micro-conversions needed to maintain repeated victories in football. 
Can you try to imagine what could replace each one when it comes to your digital marketing campaigns for your business?

1. You would need to work on your team’s ball possession. This is built through team work, good individual ball control across the team, and confidence.

Forget the fact that FC Barcelona had better BP and lost to Bayern Munich over two legs some last year, or that Bayern Munich had even better BP but lost to Real Madrid over two legs this time. 
The truth is that both of these clubs win a lot more matches than they lose. And they almost always drive the fear of God into most of their opponents hearts with this dominant ball possession.

2. Other micro conversions include having players who constantly LOOK UP while they move with the ball, to spot the best positioned players to pass the ball to. 
They shouldn’t just pass to the first one they see. 
So not all passing is good passing.

3. It pays to have some players who are very good in the air, with heading balls. Both in defense and in attack.

4. Accurate shooters (who usually keep their shots below the crossbar, and often close to either sides of the posts).

5. Great dribblers are also very good in unlocking tight defenses, by causing them to panic and commit fouls, and also by drawing them away from marking the dribbler's team mates.

6. Ball Winners who recover quickly to help the defense are a very precious commodity indeed.

Trying to keep your team playing with these elements intact and working, is a very difficult task indeed (Especially after your team has won so much and achieved so much very recently). 

But the truth is that any team that consistently tries to maintain a highly optimized set of micro-conversions would find itself winning almost every game it plays. 

Eventhough it may experience the occasional unfortunate 4-0, 3-0 or even 7-1 defeats, the reality is that, if you can analyze a team’s micro-conversions very well and do the required "engineering" to improve them, then you would be a winner MORE times than a loser. And the same goes for websites.

If you can identify the weak links in their passing game, how they fail with ball control, or where they fail in ball winning or why the strikers don’t finish properly, then you are on your way to becoming an outstanding manager.

Likewise, if you are frequently reading your analytics reports in the right context to know...

- where your websites visitors are coming from?
- how many people actually visit your website?
- are they all human?
- which of your pages do they usually seem to gravitate towards?
- which websites sends the most visitors to you?
- how many of your visitors leave immediately they arrive?
- how long visitors spend on your pages on average?
- can you know if people ALMOST bought something on your website?

If you do stuff to answer these kinds of questions, or at least hire someone who will do them conscientiously for you, then you'll gradually become an insightful businessman in your industry. Believe me.

But at the end of the day, let’s face it, neither Jose Mourinho, nor Pep Guardiola, nor Carlo Ancelotti, is going to desire to manage a club like Sunderland in England or Ancona in Italy. 

No way! 

They are going to move to teams that are already packed with gifted players like Angel DiMaria, Frank Ribery, Oscar, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Leo Messi. 
The same way it is generally better in online marketing to use digital analysis along with great marketing strategies and paid (but track-able) advertising campaigns.

Thanks for reading.

Please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below. I will surely read them and get back to you. 
Also visit my other, deeper article on the same subject.

MAKE SURE YOU CHECK OUT THESE LINKS:

1) We are True Football Analysts 

2) We have a Facebook Group (the facebook Group is now closed, but if you send two of the Admins, Tal Baryosef or myself a private message saying that you found us through this blog post, we will surely let you in.

3) We also have a much younger GooglePlus community which is open to the public and currently needs level-headed soccer enthusiats as Moderators. Take a look.